Champions League, Here We Come!!

By: Cesar | February 12th, 2008

I’m not one to issue declarations (or at least, not anymore) but the last few games have me thinking we might … *MIGHT* be back to a version of our winning ways.

I’ve said that before and been laughed at, no?

Well, this time I’m serious. I think we could go on a roll here and do some damage.
Maybe challenge for a Champions League spot?

Since our 3-1 drubbing of Real Betis at the Mestalla this weekend, coach Ronald Koeman and the boys seem more enthusiastic and more focused on the job at hand.

New defender Maduro said it for everyone to hear: There are lots of games left and it’s possible for us to get into a Champions League spot.

This is significant for two reasons:
1- Just a few weeks ago, we were 5 points from relegation. Think about that. Now we’re talking about getting into Europe again. A few games one way or the other is all it takes.

2- The players believe. For Maduro to come out and even mention the Champions League means it’s on their mind. And that’s a significant paradigm shift from a few weeks ago, when all looked lost.

So we’ve won two games in a row. Big deal, you say. Let’s not go crazy now, right?
But think about it. We’re in the semifinals of the Copa Del Rey. We’re in a small winning streak in Spain.

Can you imagine it? Winning the Cup and getting into Europe’s top competition? I’m salivating at the prospects …

Koeman sounded optimistic.

“To win two games in succession allows us to return to looking up the table and I think that we can get into the Champions League zone because we are going to continue improving,” said the Dutchman, whose side are currently in ninth spot, eight points behind fourth-placed Atletico Madrid.

“We are much happier, but things can change quickly and we cannot think that we have achieved anything yet. There are things we still need to improve on, although we have broken our poor run of results at home. We need to continue picking up points to get us to where we want to be.”

Hey, why not right?

Look, I know it’ll be hard. But it’s not impossible.

As stated before, we’re 9th. 33 points. 8 points from 4th-place Atletico.
The teams above us, like Madrid, Barca, Sevilla … they haven’t been that consistent. Neither have we, but that’s neither here nor there (just play along, ok?).

Here are our remaining games:

Getafe-Valencia
Valencia-Recreativo
Espanyol-Valencia
Valencia Deportivo
Valencia Sevilla
R. Madrid Valencia
Valencia Mallorca
Murcia Valencia
Valencia Racing
Athletic Valencia
Valencia Osasuna
Barcelona Valencia
Valencia Zaragoza
Levante Valencia
Valencia Atlético

Now, according to research done by a fellow forum poster on foroche.com (hey, I’d love to take credit for this theory, but I haven’t the time to even sit properly these days), 66 points is the average point total of the 4th-place team in Spain the last 12 years …

We currently stand at 33.
15 games left to play which leaves 45 points in play.
That means we need 33 points to reach the magical number of 66.
That leaves a margin of error of 12 points.
Meaning, we can drop 12 points.
That’s it.

So how does that work out?

11 victories and 4 losses = 33 points.
11 victories, 1 draw, 3 losses = 34 points
10 victories, 3 draws, 2 losses = 33 points
11 victories, 3 draws, 1 loss = 36 points
10 victories, 5 draws, 0 losses = 35 points

You get the idea … we have to win. A lot.
It’s not going to be easy, but it can happen.

Let’s look at that schedule again and what could happen …

Getafe-Valencia - Win (3)
Valencia-Recreativo - Win (3) 6 total
Espanyol-Valencia - Draw (1) 7 total
Valencia Deportivo - Win (3) 10
Valencia Sevilla - Loss (0) 10
R. Madrid Valencia - Draw (1) 11
Valencia Mallorca - Win (3) 14
Murcia Valencia - Win (3) 17
Valencia Racing - Draw (1) 18
Athletic Valencia - Win (3) 21
Valencia Osasuna - Win (3) 24
Barcelona Valencia - Loss (0) 24
Valencia Zaragoza - Win (3) 27
Levante Valencia - Win (3) 30
Valencia Atlético …

You see what I’m getting at .. an all-important last game against Atletico at the Mestalla for a spot in the Champions League …

Of course, this assumes that the clubs ahead of us play as they have been and drop points.
It will be hard. But it can be done …

Step by step. At the very least, a place in the UEFA Cup next season.

Hey, it would be a moral victory at this point … I don’t care!

We can do this! AMUNT!!!

P.S. For all that care, I’ll be at Nevada Smith’s this Sunday at 1pm to watch the Valencia-Getafe match. I know some people were coming into NYC to watch a game? Let’s meet up!!